Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2010-11
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#44
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#47
Pace67.3#193
Improvement-6.6#341

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#41
Improvement-2.0#274

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#48
Improvement-4.6#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.1% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.1% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four29.9% n/a n/a
First Round35.2% n/a n/a
Second Round13.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.4% n/a n/a
Final Four0.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2010 32   St. John's W 76-71 56%     1 - 0 +13.9 +4.7 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2010 318   Mississippi Valley W 87-52 98%     2 - 0 +21.0 -6.7 -5.9
  Nov 23, 2010 345   Chicago St. W 121-52 99.6%    3 - 0 +44.5 -11.1 -10.9
  Nov 26, 2010 107   Texas Tech W 88-68 74%     4 - 0 +23.7 +2.5 +2.1
  Nov 27, 2010 12   BYU L 73-74 29%     4 - 1 +15.1 +7.8 +8.2
  Dec 01, 2010 10   @ San Diego St. L 55-69 19%     4 - 2 +5.5 +9.1 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2010 214   Denver W 77-47 93%     5 - 2 +23.9 -2.1 -2.4
  Dec 14, 2010 257   UC Riverside W 75-56 95%     6 - 2 +10.1 -4.2 -3.8
  Dec 18, 2010 91   Long Beach St. W 82-74 70%     7 - 2 +12.8 +2.7 +2.5
  Dec 23, 2010 132   @ New Mexico St. W 73-53 68%     8 - 2 +25.4 +3.1 +3.3
  Dec 29, 2010 126   Mississippi St. W 94-72 77%     9 - 2 +24.6 +2.4 +1.3
  Dec 31, 2010 278   Hartford W 87-63 96%     10 - 2 +13.5 -4.2 -5.1
  Jan 06, 2011 203   @ Loyola Marymount W 98-75 82%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +23.6 +1.4 +0.2
  Jan 08, 2011 220   @ Pepperdine W 85-60 83%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +25.0 +0.4 +0.7
  Jan 13, 2011 142   San Francisco W 71-57 86%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +12.6 -0.5 -0.2
  Jan 15, 2011 145   Santa Clara W 84-59 87%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +23.2 +0.0 -0.6
  Jan 19, 2011 289   San Diego W 67-56 97%     15 - 2 5 - 0 -0.1 -5.7 -5.0
  Jan 22, 2011 31   @ Vanderbilt L 70-89 32%     15 - 3 -3.8 +7.1 +7.3
  Jan 27, 2011 35   @ Gonzaga W 73-71 34%     16 - 3 6 - 0 +16.5 +7.3 +7.3
  Jan 29, 2011 99   @ Portland L 70-85 60%     16 - 4 6 - 1 -7.4 +3.5 +3.4
  Feb 03, 2011 220   Pepperdine W 79-71 93%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +1.7 -3.1 -2.9
  Feb 05, 2011 203   Loyola Marymount W 79-70 92%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +3.2 -2.3 -3.1
  Feb 10, 2011 145   @ Santa Clara W 65-59 71%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +10.5 +2.1 +2.7
  Feb 12, 2011 142   @ San Francisco W 86-68 70%     20 - 4 10 - 1 +22.9 +2.9 +2.7
  Feb 16, 2011 289   @ San Diego L 66-74 91%     20 - 5 10 - 2 -12.8 -2.3 -2.8
  Feb 19, 2011 21   Utah St. L 65-75 51%     20 - 6 -0.1 +4.8 +4.7
  Feb 24, 2011 35   Gonzaga L 85-89 OT 58%     20 - 7 10 - 3 +4.1 +4.6 +3.4
  Feb 26, 2011 99   Portland W 83-69 80%     21 - 7 11 - 3 +15.2 +1.2 +0.7
  Mar 06, 2011 145   Santa Clara W 73-64 80%     22 - 7 +10.3 +1.1 +0.7
  Mar 07, 2011 35   Gonzaga L 63-75 46%     22 - 8 -0.7 +5.5 +5.2
  Mar 11, 2011 166   Weber St. W 77-54 89%     23 - 8 +19.7 -1.2 -1.0
Projected Record 23.0 - 8.0 11.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 49.1% 49.1% 11.7 0.1 0.4 2.7 10.2 34.6 1.1 50.9 49.1%
10-4
9-5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 49.1% 0.0% 49.1% 11.7 0.1 0.4 2.7 10.2 34.6 1.1 50.9 49.1%